So after this weekend’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Richmond, the field for stock car’s “post-season playoffs” has been set, and like many others I have my thoughts about who will win, who won’t, and why.
So here’s my list of the 12 Chase Contenders and how I think they will perform.
Kyle Busch -Arguably the best thing to happen to NASCAR this year. Yes he is brash and aggrogant, but he has every reason to be. A natural talent behind the wheel and true racer. In my opinion, the best raw talent since Earnhardt Sr. But is he paying the price for overstretching himself, and the team, early in the season when he was dominating all three NASCAR divisions? He can win races, but I’m not sure he’s ready to win his first championship.
Carl Edwards - I tend to think of Edwards as NASCAR’s “sly fox” - he plays up his homeboy mid-western roots, and can use his disarming smile and charm to get away with a lot. On his day he is one of the best, and toughest, racers - but again I’m not sure he has what it takes to race with the big picture in mind.
Jimmie Johnson - After what seemed like a lack-luster season the two time defending series champion is back running strong and winning races. Were the #48 team planning their season on getting ready for The Chase? They’ve done it before, so why not this year, and Johnson has the experience to do it yet again.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - NASCAR’s favored son is in The Chase much to the relief of the marketing and TV people, but does he have what it takes? Good on his day, but when the car’s off, so is he.
Clint Bowyer - The dark horse of the championship. What he may lack in outright speed and aggresion he more than makes up for in race craft. He may not be the most exciting driver to watch, but he can produce the results when needed.
Denny Hamlin - OK, I’ll admit I have a problem with Hamlin. He always comes across to me a a slightly spoiled petulant teenager. He can win races, but he doesn’t seem to have the personality to build a team around him. And to win you need a team.
Jeff Burton - The wiley veteran who can still produce victories when needed and is a master of the “big picture.” Again not that exciting to watch, but could end up near, if not at, the top when it’s all over.
Tony Stewart - “Smoke’s” temper tantrum when finishing second at the Richmond race demonstrated why he has been winless this year and won’t win the championship either. He has lost his bond with his crew chief and team, and his mind has already turned to running his own operation next year.
Greg Biffle - “Biff” is something of an enigma. He never really seems to have delievered on the promise he showed in trucks and the lower series, but is always around at the end of the day. He may not win much, but he quietly and steadily amasses points. And that’s what you need to win championships.
Jeff Gordon - In recent years the once dominant #24 crew have been over shadowed by their #48 team-mates, but this year Gordon seems more settled and they look to be on the way back. Maybe not a contender this year, but could be back at the top before too long.
Kevin Harvick - Harvick’s perfomances always seem inconsitent. Wins come infrequently, but when they do they are at the right time, like his Daytona 500 win last year. I find Harvick difficult to read both on and off track. He always has been, and remains, something of an unknown quantity.
Matt Kenseth - A steady and unspectacular racer with the personality of a dead sheep. Last time Kenseth won the championship NASCAR chanced the format to make things more exciting. He just scraped in to the chase this year, and he was lucky to do that.
So having said that, who’s my pick to lift the Sprint Cup trophy at Homestead in November? I’d love it to be Kyle Busch - but I believe that, once again, the #48 team have timed things right and that Jimmie Johnson will carry the momentun of two recent wins into The Chase and end up winning the title. (But keep an eye on Clint Bowyer.)
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